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王彦阁. 内蒙古阴山北麓农牧交错区土地利用动态分析及预测[J]. 浙江林业科技, 2020, 40(4): 10-17. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2020.04.002
引用本文: 王彦阁. 内蒙古阴山北麓农牧交错区土地利用动态分析及预测[J]. 浙江林业科技, 2020, 40(4): 10-17. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2020.04.002
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WANG Yan-ge. Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Types in Agro-Pastoral Ecotone in the Northern Yinshan Mountain of Inner Mongolia[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology, 2020, 40(4): 10-17. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2020.04.002
Citation: WANG Yan-ge. Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Types in Agro-Pastoral Ecotone in the Northern Yinshan Mountain of Inner Mongolia[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology, 2020, 40(4): 10-17. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2020.04.002
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内蒙古阴山北麓农牧交错区土地利用动态分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Types in Agro-Pastoral Ecotone in the Northern Yinshan Mountain of Inner Mongolia

    摘要
  • 摘要: 基于阴山北麓农牧交错区2000 年、2005 年、2010 年、2015 年四期土地利用遥感监测图，利用ARCGIS 和IDRISI 软件分析了区域土地利用格局及其时空变化规律和变化趋势，并用CA-Markov 模型对2020 年的土地利用变化趋势进行了模拟。结果表明：（1）草地、耕地和未利用地为研究区的优势地类，2000-2015 年耕地面积逐渐减少，主要转化为林地和草地；林地、居民工矿用地面积逐渐增加；草地面积在2000-2010 年逐渐增加，2010-2015 年又显著减少，主要转化为未利用地；未利用地面积在2000-2010 年逐渐减少，2010-2015 年又呈增加趋势；水域面积没有发生显著的变化。（2）2000-2005 年由于生态工程实施的扰动，使得土地利用处于调整期；2005-2010 年土地利用处于稳定期；2010-2015 年土地利用处于衰退期。（3）2020 年土地利用的变化趋势和2010-2015 年这5 年间的变化趋势大体相同，主要变化发生在草地和未利用土地上，但变化幅度显著增加。

     

    Abstract: Based on remote sensing monitoring maps of different land use types in agro-pastoral ecotone in the northern Yinshan Mountain, Inner Mongolia in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, analysis was made on the pattern and spatial-temporal change by using ARCGIS and IDRISI, and prediction was simulated of land use types in 2020 by CA-Markov model.The results showed that from 2000 to 2015, the area of cultivated land decreased gradually, which was mainly converted into forest land and grassland, the area of forest land and residential land increased gradually.The area of grassland increased from 2000 to 2010, but decreased evidently from 2010 to 2015, mainly converted into unused land.While unused land decreased from 2000 to 2010 and increased from 2010 to 2015.There was no significant change in water area.The change of land use types during 2000 to 2005 was due to adjustment of ecological project, and then in a stable period from 2005 to 2010.The trend of land use types in 2020 by CA-Markov model was the same as that during 2010-2015.

     

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