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冯鸿能, 杨德宏, 沈聪颖. 基于MaxEnt模型的长蕊木兰在云南省的分布预测及适应性分析[J]. 浙江林业科技, 2021, 41(3): 46-50. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2021.03.006
引用本文: 冯鸿能, 杨德宏, 沈聪颖. 基于MaxEnt模型的长蕊木兰在云南省的分布预测及适应性分析[J]. 浙江林业科技, 2021, 41(3): 46-50. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2021.03.006
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FENG Hong-neng, YANG De-hong, SHEN Cong-ying. Prediction of Distribution of Alcimandra cathcartii in Yunnan Province based on Maximum Entropy Modeling[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology, 2021, 41(3): 46-50. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2021.03.006
Citation: FENG Hong-neng, YANG De-hong, SHEN Cong-ying. Prediction of Distribution of Alcimandra cathcartii in Yunnan Province based on Maximum Entropy Modeling[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology, 2021, 41(3): 46-50. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2021.03.006
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基于MaxEnt模型的长蕊木兰在云南省的分布预测及适应性分析

Prediction of Distribution of Alcimandra cathcartii in Yunnan Province based on Maximum Entropy Modeling

    摘要
  • 摘要: 本研究收集了51个长蕊木兰Alcimandra cathcartii地理分布数据和37个气候地理环境因子，通过MaxEnt模型预测云南省长蕊木兰的潜在分布区。结果表明，预测结果良好，ROC曲线分析的AUC值为0.946。Jackknife检验表明，影响长蕊木兰潜在分布的最主要环境因子有5个，分别为7月的平均降水量、昼夜温差月均值、年均温变化范围、最冷季度降水量、年均降水量，累积贡献率为68.13%，其最适宜的区间分别为150 ~ 400 mm、7 ~ 9℃、17 ~ 19℃、60 ~ 120 mm、1 000 ~ 2 000 mm；长蕊木兰在云南省的潜在适生区面积为3 096.46 km2，其中高适生区所占面积为1 233.68 km2，中适生区所占面积为1 862.78 km2，二者面积占云南省国土总面积的2.6%，主要分布在马关县、屏边苗族自治县、西畴县、腾冲县、贡山独龙族怒族自治县等地区。建议在高适应区和中适应区，可以适当划定保护小区，对长蕊木兰进行就地保护，与此同时，可以将各个种群联系以来，以增加物种的稳定性。本研究结果可为云南省长蕊木兰的保护规划提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: 51 geographic distribution data of Alcimandra cathcardii in Yunnan province and 37 climatic and geographical environmental factors were collected from different databases. The potential distribution areal of A. cathcardii in Yunnan was predicted by MaxEnt modeling. The results showed that area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.946. Jackknife test showed that the most important environmental factors affecting A. cathcardii were mean precipitation in July (400 mm), monthly mean diurnal temperature difference (8°C), range of average annual temperature change (18°C), winter precipitation (120 mm), average annual precipitation (2 000 mm). There are 1 233.68 km2 of the most suitable areal in Yunnan for growth of A. cathcardii, such as Maguan County, Pingbian Miao Autonomous County, Xichou County, Tengchong County, Gongshan Dulong and Nu Autonomous County, etc.

     

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