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李慧, 张志华, 荐圣淇. 基于MaxEnt模型伊洛河流域油松潜在适生分布区模拟分析[J]. 浙江林业科技, 2023, 43(1): 1-8. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2023.01.001
引用本文: 李慧, 张志华, 荐圣淇. 基于MaxEnt模型伊洛河流域油松潜在适生分布区模拟分析[J]. 浙江林业科技, 2023, 43(1): 1-8. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2023.01.001
LI Hui, ZHANG Zhi-hua, JIAN Sheng-qi. Simulation of Potential Suitable Distribution Area of Pinus tabuliformis in Yiluo River Basin Based on MaxEnt Model[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology, 2023, 43(1): 1-8. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2023.01.001
Citation: LI Hui, ZHANG Zhi-hua, JIAN Sheng-qi. Simulation of Potential Suitable Distribution Area of Pinus tabuliformis in Yiluo River Basin Based on MaxEnt Model[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology, 2023, 43(1): 1-8. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2023.01.001

基于MaxEnt模型伊洛河流域油松潜在适生分布区模拟分析

Simulation of Potential Suitable Distribution Area of Pinus tabuliformis in Yiluo River Basin Based on MaxEnt Model

  • 摘要: 物种适生分布区的预测是指导引种和栽培的有效途径。油松Pinustabuliformis是我国主要的用材树种之一,种植范围广泛,对于水土保持起着关键作用。本文以黄河流域一级支流伊洛河流域为研究区,采用MaxEnt模型,依据76个油松有效地理分布样本点和筛选出的相关性低的10个环境特征变量,随机选择75%的油松分布点进行建模,25%的油松分布点进行模型验证,利用GIS空间技术平台,预测伊洛河流域油松的适生区域。结果表明:(1)MaxEnt模型具有良好的模拟效果,训练数据集工作特性曲线下的面积为0.957,测试数据的面积集为0.935;(2)年平均降水量是影响伊洛河流域油松适生分布区最重要的变量,其次是土壤类型、海拔、降水季节性变化、温度季节性变化,其贡献率分别为35%、24.8%、19.9%、9.2%和7.1%。油松适生降水量季节性变化范围为70~74mm,平均年降水量为710~850mm,气温季节变化范围在7.8~8.5℃,海拔范围在1156m以上;(3)油松在伊洛河流域东北部分布较少,中部和南部是主要的油松适生分布区,油松适生分布区面积为9074.84km2,占伊洛河流域总面积的46.98%,其中,高适生区面积约为3064km2,中适生区面积约为3015km2,低适生区面积约为2996km2。

     

    Abstract: MaxEnt model and GIS was used to simulate potential suitable distribution area of Pinus tabuliformis in the Yiluo River Basin, based on 76 samples and 10 environmental variables. The results showed that area under working characteristic curve (AUC) of training and test set was 0.957 and 0.935, meaning that MaxEnt had good simulation accuracy. According to the Jackknife, contribution rate and permutation importance, mean annual precipitation (35%) was the most important variable, followed by soil type (24.8%), altitude (19.9%), seasonal precipitation (9.2%) and seasonal temperature (7.1%). The result demonstrated that the suitable distribution for P. tabuliformis growth was under annual precipitation of 710-850 mm, seasonal precipitation change within70-74 mm, seasonal temperature change within 7.8℃-8.5℃and with the altitude above 1 156 m. P. tabuliformis was actually distributed in the central and southern region of the Yiluo River Basin, with the area 9 074.84 km2, occupying 46.98% of the Basin.

     

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