高级检索+
吴利平, 商云飞, 姜壮, 王晓丽, 饶文武, 初楚, 毛赟来, 潘江灵. 预测气候变化对野生茉莉花在中国潜在分布的影响[J]. 浙江林业科技, 2024, 44(2): 22-27. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2024.02.003
引用本文: 吴利平, 商云飞, 姜壮, 王晓丽, 饶文武, 初楚, 毛赟来, 潘江灵. 预测气候变化对野生茉莉花在中国潜在分布的影响[J]. 浙江林业科技, 2024, 44(2): 22-27. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2024.02.003
WU Liping, SHANG Yunfei, JIANG Zhuang, WANG Xiaoli, RAO Wenwu, CHU Chu, MAO Yunlai, PAN Jiangling. Effect of Climate Factors on Potential Distribution of Jasminum sambac in China[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology, 2024, 44(2): 22-27. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2024.02.003
Citation: WU Liping, SHANG Yunfei, JIANG Zhuang, WANG Xiaoli, RAO Wenwu, CHU Chu, MAO Yunlai, PAN Jiangling. Effect of Climate Factors on Potential Distribution of Jasminum sambac in China[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology, 2024, 44(2): 22-27. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2024.02.003

预测气候变化对野生茉莉花在中国潜在分布的影响

Effect of Climate Factors on Potential Distribution of Jasminum sambac in China

  • 摘要: 本研究基于ArcGIS软件与MaxEnt模型,根据85个野生茉莉花Jasminumsambac分布记录和19个气候因子,对其当前和未来的生态位进行模拟。结果显示:受试者工作特征(Receiveroperatingcharacteristic,ROC)曲线下面积(Areaundercurve,AUC)为0.982,表明模型的预测准确度极高;野生茉莉花当前分布主要受温度(年平均温度、温度变化方差、最干季度均温、最暖季度均温)和降雨(最湿降水量、最热季平均降水量)的影响。野生茉莉花当前(1950—2000年)的高度适生区主要集中在广东西南部、云南、四川和重庆接壤处、湖南北部、河南南部、安徽中部和江苏中部等地;未来(2050年)随着气候的变化,野生茉莉花的适生区将向中国西南、东南地区迁移;野生茉莉花的适生区面积将缩小,但是高度适生区面积将增大,浙江和福建将变为高度适生区;野生茉莉花高度适生区在四川的分布面积将扩大,但在江苏、广东和广西的分布面积将减小。本研究丰富了野生茉莉的生物地理学内容,为其野生资源的保护工作提供了理论指导。

     

    Abstract: Based on ArcGIS and MaxEnt model, 85 distribution records of wild Jasminum sambac and 19 climate variables were used to simulate its current and future niches. The results showed that the area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.982, indicating an extremely high accuracy of the model prediction. The current distribution of J. sambac was mainly affected by temperature (mean annual temperature, ANOVA of temperature change, mean temperature in the driest season, mean temperature of the warmest season) and precipitation (in the wettest season and the warmest season). Under the current climate condition, the optimum habitat of J. sambac mainly distributes in the southwestern Guangdong, the borders of Yunnan, Sichuan and Chongqing, northern Hunan, southern Henan, central Anhui, and central Jiangsu. In the future (2050) with climate

     

/

返回文章
返回