高级检索+

濒危珍贵树种浙江楠的潜在适生区预测

Prediction of Potential Habitats for the Endangered Precious Tree Species Phoebe chekiangensis

  • 摘要: 研究濒危珍贵用材树种浙江楠Phoebe chekiangensis的潜在适生区及其对环境因子的响应,有助于制定科学的栽种计划,为后续管理和保护提供依据。本研究基于浙江省生态监测样地数据库中2015—2021年64个浙江楠样地分布点数据,采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统技术(ArcGIS),对其在浙江省的潜在适生区进行预测分析。通过ROC曲线检测模型精度并划分适生等级,采用刀切法筛选主导环境因子,并通过分析主导环境变量的响应曲线确定适宜浙江楠生存的环境条件。结果表明,浙江楠适生区预测模型的平均AUC值为0.873,显示模型具有良好的预测能力;其在浙江省的高适生区集中分布于浙西南山地,面积约为0.845万km2;影响适生区分布的主要环境因子包括海拔、最湿月降水量、最干月降水量和最湿季平均气温等。浙江楠在浙江省的适生区分布高度集中,主要受地形、降水和气温等因子的综合影响。基于以上研究结果,建议在引种栽培和造林规划中充分考虑上述环境限制因子,同时重点加强高海拔山地生态保护,以降低浙江楠适生区缩减的风险。

     

    Abstract: Investigating the potential suitable habitats of the endangered and economically valuable tree species Phoebe chekiangensis and its response to environmental factors is favourable for developing scientific cultivation plans and providing the foundation of subsequent management as well as conservation strategies. This study predicted the potential suitable habitats across Zhejiang Province on the basis of data about 64 P. chekiangensis distribution spots during the period from 2015 to 2021 in Zhejiang Province’s ecological monitoring plot database, applying the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) integrated with Geographic Information System (ArcGIS) technology. The accuracy of the Model was detected using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) Curves and the habitat suitability levels were classified, while dominant environmental factors were selected by using the jackknife method, response curves of these factors were analyzed to determine optimal ecological conditions for P. chekiangensis survival. Results demonstrated that the mean AUC value of the habitat prediction model is 0.873, indicating high predictive accuracy. The high suitable areas for P. chekiangensis in Zhejiang Province were mainly concentrated in the southwestern mountainous region, with an approximate area of 8 450 square kilometers. Key environmental determinants affecting the distribution of its suitable habitats included elevation, precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and mean air temperature of the wettest season (Bio8), etc., with habitats aggregated highly and affected comprehensively by topographic factors, precipitation and temperature, etc. These findings suggest that the above environmental constraints should be given priority in the introduction and afforestation of P. chekiangensis, simultaneously with ecological protection in high-altitude mountainous region strengthened so as to mitigate habitat contraction for P. chekiangensis.

     

/

返回文章
返回