Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution of Rhododendron fortunei in China Under Climate Change

Rhododendron fortunei is a unique mountain flower plant in China. Based on 145 collected geographical distribution records and 12 screened environmental variables, the potential suitable distribution and changes of R. fortunei in China under current and future different climate scenarios were predicted by using ArcGIS software and MaxEnt model, and the main environmental variables affecting its distribution were analyzed. It provides a scientific reference for the resource protection and cultivation application of R. fortunei. The results showed that the MaxEnt model was accurate in predicting the suitable distribution of R. fortunei. Bio14 （Precipitation of driest month）, Alt （Altitude）, bio1 （Annual mean temperature） and SOC （Soil organic carbon） were the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of the suitable distribution of R. fortunei. At present, the potential suitable distribution of R. fortunei is mainly distributed in the middle-high altitude mountain area of southern China, and the suitable distribution is 12.13×10⁴ km². In the 2050s and 2090s under the background of future climate change, as a mountain plant, the potential suitable distribution of R. fortunei will significantly contract and fragm, and the distribution center of mass will move northward.