Analysis of Suitable Habitats for Cunninghamia lanceolata in Zhejiang Province Under the Context of Climate Change

Amid climate change, the potential distribution areas of plants are expected to shift, necessitating predictions about the impact of climate change on plant geographical distribution patterns. This study used Zhejiang Province as a case study, utilizing 1,574 distribution data points of Cunninghamia lanceolata and 13 habitat-related datasets.By employing the MaxEnt ecological niche model, the research predicted the potential suitable areas for Cunninghamia lanceolataunder current climatic scenarios and assessed the optimal suitable areas under different habitat conditions.Cunninghamia lanceolata Fifteen potential distribution models were constructed, and the average AUC value from repeated experiments was 0.797 with a standard deviation of 0.011, indicating high prediction reliability. According to the model, the total suitable area for Cunninghamia lanceolata in Zhejiang is 7.08×10⁴ km², with high, medium, and low suitability areas covering 1.79×10⁴ km², 2.80×10⁴ km², and 2.50×10⁴ km², respectively. The results highlight that elevation and precipitation during the wettest month （bio13） are crucial factors influencing the distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata. The optimal habitat for Cunninghamia lanceolata is typically situated at elevations of 1200−1 400 m, with a wettest month precipitation of 320 mm, an annual temperature range of 30 ℃, and the lowest temperature in the coldest month reaching −1 ℃. By assessing climate, soil, and other factors restricting the distribution and growth of Cunninghamia lanceolata, this research elucidates the current and future optimal cultivation zones for Cunninghamia lanceolata under the context of ongoing climate warming.