Analysis of Environmental Characteristics and Suitable Areas of Ilex chinensis Habitats in Zhejiang Province

Ilex chinensis is an important species of evergreen broad-leaved forests and has considerable potential for application in forest restoration. This study is based on 10-year survey data from 364 plots in public welfare forests in Zhejiang Province, and 13 environmental factors were selected along with the MaxEnt model employed to predict the potential suitable area for I. chinensis in Zhejiang Province. The results showed that the mean AUC value of the model was 0.77, indicating reliable prediction. The highly suitable area was approximately 18 100 km², mainly distributed in the southwestern part of Hangzhou, the southern part of Jinhua, the entire Lishui region, and the north-central part of Huzhou. The moderately and lowly suitable areas were 25 300 km² and 35 300 km², respectively. Analysis of environmental factor contribution rates showed that precipitation of the wettest quarter was the dominant driver, with an optimal range of 500 ~ 800 mm. Slope, minimum temperature in the coldest month and elevation also had significant effects on I. chinensis distribution. Species response curves indicated that the probability of occurrence rose rapidly with increasing slope and then reached a plateau, displayed a unimodal trend with the minimum temperature of the coldest month, and generally increased with the elevation. Overall, I. chinensis is suitable for mid-to-low elevation areas with moderate precipitation, favorable temperature conditions and certain slopes. This study provides a scientific basis for the ecological restoration and reconstruction of evergreen broad-leaved forests in Zhejiang Province.